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Thursday, October 27, 2011

Latest Poll Shows Tightening Race For Congress

News Release from Lake Research Partners

A recently completed Lake Research Partners survey of primary voters in California’s new 2nd Congressional District shows the race taking shape, with author, activist, and public interest advocate Norman Solomon in strong position to emerge from a crowded field of candidates. With a large portion of the electorate still undecided, Solomon has the right profile and experience to give him a path to victory in the primary election next year.

Although still several months away, the congressional race is beginning to take shape. State Assemblymember Jared Huffman draws 16% of votes; small business owner Dan Roberts, the only Republican in the race so far, is currently getting 12% support, with Norman Solomon following closely with 11%. County Supervisor Susan Adams and entrepreneur Stacey Lawson achieve 4% of support each, followed by medical marijuana expert William Courtney with 3%, activist Andy Caffrey with 2%, and Petaluma Councilwoman Tiffany Renee with 1%. The race is up for grabs, with nearly half (46%) of voters undecided.

When voters are given short positive biographical profiles on each of the candidates, the gap between Huffman and Solomon shrinks to less than the margin of error. Huffman leads with 24%, followed closely by Solomon with 21%. Huffman’s lead over Solomon is within the margin of error of the poll, and likely due to his name recognition. Roberts comes in third with 17%, followed by Adams (8%), Lawson and Renee (3% each), Caffrey (2%), and Courtney (1%). About one fifth of voters (19%) continue to be undecided.

With several months to go until the June primary election, Solomon is in a good position to close the narrow gap with Huffman and advance to the top-two runoff. Solomon’s biography, ideals, and experience are the right match for CA-02, and voters respond very positively to his message.

* These findings are based on 400 telephone interviews with a random sample of likely 2012 primary election voters in CA-02 , supplemented with an oversample of 50 additional interviews among voters in Humboldt and Mendocino counties. Interviews were conducted October 18-20, 2011. Sampling error is +/- 4.9%.